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Cook Report shifts Arizona Senate race towards Democrats

The Cook Political Report on Thursday shifted the Arizona Senate race, one of the key contests that would decide control of the upper chamber, from a “toss up” to “lean Democrat.”

Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for Cook, a nonpartisan election evaluation web site, said in her clarification of the transfer that the Arizona Senate race may be the best instance of Democrats being in a powerful position to hold the Senate. 

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) has led Republican challenger Blake Masters in latest polling, together with an AARP ballot released Wednesday that showed him up by 8 points. FiveThirtyEight’s polling common reveals Kelly leading Masters by about 8.5 factors. 

Taylor noted Kelly had raised $54 million for his campaign and still had almost $25 million left as of the middle of July, whereas Masters had raised just lower than $5 million through the cycle. 

Taylor also mentioned “it is evident that main outside teams are focusing their manpower elsewhere.”

A tremendous PAC tied to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the Senate Leadership Fund confirmed Tuesday that it is cutting $9.6 million in advertising buys after already canceling $8 million in ads last month. 

The Senate Leadership Fund mentioned this week that it anticipated different teams to step in and make up the fundraising hole, but Taylor mentioned these groups do not have the same intensive donor base. 

Masters’s campaign has also been “fully dark” on tv this week, as the final time his marketing campaign totally purchased ad flights ended on Aug. 30. 

Taylor said Cook recently observed a focus group with probably Arizona voters who voted for former President Trump in 2016 and President Biden in 2020. All of them had been sad with Biden, and most voted within the Republican major for Senate this yr, but 7 out of 9 said they would vote for Kelly over Masters if the election was held at present. 

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One participant described Masters as “dangerous” to Arizona like Trump was towards the top of his time period, while one other stated, “We’ve reached double digits of questionable things the guy’s mentioned.” 

The Arizona race is the second main Senate contest that the Cook Political Report has shifted out of its “toss up” category and towards Democrats in simply over a month.

The publication in August moved the Pennsylvania Senate race — during which Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) is taking up Republican Mehmet Oz — from “toss up” to “lean Democrat.”

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